I looked at this a few years ago and got a similar result. Carlsen really does seem to go on a rampage after a loss.
What was interesting at the time was that Nepo, who was seen as temperamental and likely to collapse after a loss, actually performed very similarly regardless of the result of the last game. But it was Caruana, who was seen as very steady, who performed much worse after a loss.
That's interesting. For Caruana the time control may play a part in explaining the result, as he had the reputation of performing worse in faster time controls. So he may more often lose multiple rapid/blitz games in a row while doing fine after losses in classical events.
I looked at this a few years ago and got a similar result. Carlsen really does seem to go on a rampage after a loss.
What was interesting at the time was that Nepo, who was seen as temperamental and likely to collapse after a loss, actually performed very similarly regardless of the result of the last game. But it was Caruana, who was seen as very steady, who performed much worse after a loss.
https://zwischenzug.substack.com/p/the-comeback-king
That's interesting. For Caruana the time control may play a part in explaining the result, as he had the reputation of performing worse in faster time controls. So he may more often lose multiple rapid/blitz games in a row while doing fine after losses in classical events.