Is Carlsen better after losing a game?

Looking at Carlsen's score based on the previous result

I recently looked at how well Magnus Carlsen scores in equal endgames and the data confirmed the view that he squeezes out more wins from these positions than other top players.

This got me thinking about another “folklore” about Carlsen, namely that he performs better after a loss. So this is what I want to do in this post.

To see how well Carlsen performed after losing a game, I looked at all his OTB games since 2010 and grouped them by time control. I then categorised the games by Carlsen’s result in the previous game in the same event. So I didn’t count first round games, as there was no previous result.

I got the following results for Carlsen’s scores in the different time controls.

Carlsen’s score after wins, draws and losses in classical, rapid and blitz

The data shows that Carlsen scores better after he lost in classical chess, with a score of 72% compared to a score of 65% and 64% after wins and draws respectively.

In rapid and blitz chess, the scores are more even and Carlsen even scores slightly better after he has won his previous game. One big difference between classical games and faster time controls is that there are usually multiple rapid and blitz games on the same day. So on days where Carlsen feels good, he may more easily win multiple games in a row.

Another difference is that many of the quicker games come from the rapid and blitz world championships, which are usually played with the Swiss system, opposed to round robin classical events. So Carlsen would be a heavy favourite in the first couple of rounds, which can lead to more winning streaks. But a Swiss system also means that he would generally get weaker opposition after he has lost a game. I don’t know how much these factors influence the results, but it’s something to keep in mind.

It’s also important to point out that there are fewer games after Carlsen lost, simply because he doesn’t lose very often.

Finally, I also looked at Carlsen’s performance rating based on the previous result.

Carlsen’s performance rating after wins, draws and losses in classical, rapid and blitz

This gives the same picture as the score, meaning that the ratings of his opponents were similar in all situations.

It’s amazing to see that Carlsen’s performance rating in classical after he has lost is over 2900.

Let me know if there are similar stats you’d like me to look into.